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Understanding Deterrence - RAND Corporation

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Deterrence turns out to be about much more than merely threatening a potential adversary: It demands the nuanced shaping of perceptions so that an adversary ... Skiptopagecontent RANDPublishedResearchPerspectives>PE-295 ReadOnline UnderstandingDeterrence byMichaelJ.Mazarr RelatedTopics:MilitaryCommandandControl,MilitaryDoctrine,MilitaryForcePlanning,NuclearDeterrence,WarfareandMilitaryOperations CitationEmbed ShareonFacebookShareonTwitterShareonLinkedIn DownloadFreeElectronicDocument FormatFileSizeNotes PDFfile 0.2MB UseAdobeAcrobatReaderversion10orhigherforthebestexperience. Thechallengeofdeterrence—discouragingstatesfromtakingunwantedactions,especiallymilitaryaggression—hasagainbecomeaprincipalthemeinU.S.defensepolicy.Becausemanypotentialadversariesaresignificantlymorecapablethantheywereadecadeormoreago,moreover,therisksofactuallyfightingamajorwararemoresignificantthanever—makingitevenmoreimperativetodeterconflict.Yetmuchoftheemergingdialogueondeterrenceremainscharacterizedbyunsupportedassertions,claimsthatcontradicttheempiricalrecord,andlittlereferencetoclassicanalyses.Meanwhile,changesintheinternationalsecurityenvironmenthavealteredthecontextfordeterrence,possiblychallenginglong-heldassumptionsandcreatingnewrequirements.ThisPerspectivedrawsonarangeofrecentandclassicRANDCorporationstudiestorevisitfundamentalconceptsandprinciplesaboutdeterrence.Themostimportantoverarchinglessonofthisreviewisthatdeterrenceanddissuasionmustbeconceivedprimarilyasanefforttoshapethethinkingofapotentialaggressor.Anystrategytopreventaggressionmustbeginwithanassessmentoftheinterests,motives,andimperativesofthepotentialaggressor,includingitstheoryofdeterrence(takingintoaccountwhatitvaluesandwhy).Deterrenceturnsouttobeaboutmuchmorethanmerelythreateningapotentialadversary:Itdemandsthenuancedshapingofperceptionssothatanadversaryseesthealternativestoaggressionasmoreattractivethanwar. ThisprojectisaRANDVenture.FundingwasprovidedbygiftsfromRANDsupportersandincomefromoperations.ThispublicationispartoftheRANDCorporationPerspectiveseries.RANDPerspectivespresentexpertinsightsontimelypolicyissues.AllRANDPerspectivesundergopeerreviewtoensurehighstandardsforqualityandobjectivity.Permissionisgiventoduplicatethiselectronicdocumentforpersonaluseonly,aslongasitisunalteredandcomplete.Copiesmaynotbeduplicatedforcommercialpurposes.UnauthorizedpostingofRANDPDFstoanon-RANDWebsiteisprohibited.RANDPDFsareprotectedundercopyrightlaw.Forinformationonreprintandlinkingpermissions,pleasevisittheRANDPermissionspage. TheRANDCorporationisanonprofitinstitutionthathelpsimprovepolicyanddecisionmakingthroughresearchandanalysis.RAND'spublicationsdonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofitsresearchclientsandsponsors. DocumentDetails Copyright:RANDCorporation Availability:Web-Only Pages:14 DOI:https://doi.org/10.7249/PE295 DocumentNumber:PE-295-RC Year:2018 Series:Perspectives Explore RelatedTopics MilitaryCommandandControlMilitaryDoctrineMilitaryForcePlanningNuclearDeterrenceWarfareandMilitaryOperations BrowsebySeries BrowsebyAuthors StayInformedRANDPolicyCurrentsGetweeklyupdatesfromRAND. EmailSignUp Citation Format: ChicagoManualofStyle RANDCorporationStyleManual Mazarr,MichaelJ.,UnderstandingDeterrence.SantaMonica,CA:RANDCorporation,2018.https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE295.html. Mazarr,MichaelJ.,UnderstandingDeterrence,SantaMonica,Calif.:RANDCorporation,PE-295-RC,2018.AsofNovember01,2021:https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE295.html DownloadCitation(BibTeX) DownloadCitation(RIS) SavetoMyRAND Email Print ShareonFacebookShareonTwitterShareonLinkedIn

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