DNV GL – Energy Systems | Palisade

Det Norske Veritas (DNV) uses @RISK to Identify Risks in Energy Systems.. Customer. DNV GL – Energy Systems.. Industry. Construction & Engineering ... DetNorskeVeritas(DNV)uses@RISKtoIdentifyRisksinEnergySystems  Customer DNVGL–EnergySystems  Industry Construction&Engineering,Energy&Utilities  Product(s) @RISK&TopRank Z Application ROIofdifferentProjects DetNorskeVeritas(DNV)isaglobalproviderofservicesformanagingriskforavarietyofindustriesworldwide.TheorganizationwasinterestedincomparingandcontrastingriskfactorsandROIofnon-traditionalandtraditionalenergysources,andutilized@RISKtoestablishabaselineofprobabilitiesforanumberofriskfactorsassociatedwitheachsystem. AboutDNV Establishedin1864,DNVprimarilyprovidestechnicalassistancetoshipowners,buildersandoperatorstoenablethemtocomplywithcertificationsandclassificationservicesrequiredtomeetthetechnicalregulationsfortheshippingindustry.DNValsoprovidesthirdpartyconsultingservicestocompaniesintheenergyindustrytohelpthembuildoffshorestructuressuchaswindturbines. Technological,RegulatoryShiftsRequireConstantAttention DNVclientsaresubjecttoelementsofchange,whichareoftenoutsideoftheclients’control.Whetheradaptingtotechnicaltransitionsinthemaritimeandoilindustries,orconsideringtheregulatoryadjustmentsexperiencedinthehealthcareandfoodandbeverageindustries,DNVmustdeterminethepotentialriskfactorscreatedwhenthestatusquoisaltered.Riskfactorscanchangequickly,whichrequiresDNVtoadjustitsprojectionsaccordingly. ClientstrustDNVtoofferaccurateforecastsofrisk,andDNVmeetsthischallengethroughtheutilizationofMonteCarlosimulationwithPalisade’s@RISKsoftware.@RISKworksbyprovidingarangeofprobabilitydistributionstorepresentuncertainvariables,andthencomputinghundredsorthousandsofdifferentscenarios.Aprobabilitydistributionissimplyarangeofvalueswithgreaterprobabilityofcertainvaluesoccurringthanothers.Thenormaldistribution,or“bellcurve,”isacommonexample.Thevaluesaroundthecenter–ormean–ofthedistributionaremorelikelytooccurthanthevaluesattheends,ortails. DNVUtilizes@RISKtoExamineRiskinNon-TraditionalandTraditionalEnergySystems Withanyenergysystem,inherentriskscanbefound,andthoseriskscancreateinstantemergenciesandlong-termdrawbacks.DNVsetouttoquantifyriskofnon-traditionalenergysystems(windandsolar)andtraditionalenergysystems(nuclearwastestorage,oilandgas,nuclearandCO2recycling).Forthisproject,theorganizationutilized@RISK’striangulardistributioninitsprojectionmodels.Theresearchinvolvedathree-stepprocess: 1.Identifyingmodelinputs.Theseinputsareuncertainfactorsandvarybymodel.Inthiscase,inputssuchasweathervariables,energycosts,productionrates,equipmentdeteriorationandlocationofenergysourceextractionwereconsidered.2.Creatingasimpleeconomicprojectiontodetermineifthemodelisfundamentallyaccurate.3.Conductingasensitivityanalysistodeterminethemostimportantfactorsdrivingriskinthemodel. Thisprocesswasrepeatedcontinuouslytorefineeachmodel.Onceareliablemodelwasestablished,DNVinsertedprobabilisticvariablestoproducemoredetailedstatisticalanalysesandidentifyoutcomeprobabilitiesofeachenergysource. SummaryDetNorskeVeritas(DNV)isaglobalproviderofservicesformanagingriskforavarietyofindustriesworldwide.TheorganizationwasinterestedincomparingandcontrastingriskfactorsandROIofnon-traditionalandtraditionalenergysources,andutilized@RISKtoestablishabaselineofprobabilitiesforanumberofriskfactorsassociatedwitheachsystem. QuoteDavionHill SeniorResearcher,DNV Riskispartofeverythingwedo.Weareverycommittedtoourroleasanobjectivethirdpartyandwemustenabletrustintherelationshipsbetweenourcustomers.Therefore,whenwepresentrisktoourcustomers,weprefertodoitinawaythatistangibleandrelevanttothecontextofthesituation.Usingtoolsthatquantifyriskisanimportantpartofthatservice.Groupsthataretypicallyrunningprocessmodelsoreconomicprojectionsvaluethesensitivityanalysiscapabilityof@RISK. What@RISKHelpedDNVtoDetermine Withtheutilizationof@RISK,DNVfoundusefulinformationregardingvariousriskfactorsinnon-traditionalenergysources. WindandSolarTheregioninwhichtheequipment—windturbinesandsolarvoltaicpanels—wasbuilthadastrongeffectonitsnetreturnoncarboninvestment.Forexample,solarpanelsmadeinacoalintensiveelectricgridwouldbechallengedtopaybackthatcarboniftheyweren’tdeployedinasunnyarea. NuclearWasteStorageTheanalysiswassimplistic,butnuclearwastestoragetankssawsensitivityfactorsflipdependingonwhethertheywereexaminedtheliquidphaseorvaporphase. OilandGasFortheoffshorerisercalculation,theprobabilisticanalysishelpedDNVtodeterminewhichflowconditionsweremostsevereintermsofcorrosionrate. CO2RecyclingProbabilisticanalysisledDNVtochangeitscelldesign.Theybeganwithaveryconsumables-intensiveprocesswhichconsumedalotofsodiumhydroxide(NaOH).ThevaluechainmodelshowedthatNaOHconsumptionwasamajornegativesensitivityfactorinthenetpresentvalueprojectionforthesystem.“ThishelpeduschangetoalessNaOH-intensiveelectrochemicalprocess,”saidDavionHill,seniorresearcheratDNV.“Wearenowusingthesensitivityanalysistoidentifyalternativesthatwillhelpusbringdowntheenergycosts.Thisiterativeanalysishasbeenverypowerfulintheshapingofthisproject.” @RISKSimplifiesExplanationofRisk Gatheringofriskinformationisonlyasusefulastheabilitytotranslateandexplainittothosewhorequirethedata.DNVfoundoneof@RISK’sstrongestattributestobethestraightforwardnatureinwhichtheanalysisispresented. “Riskispartofeverythingwedo.Weareverycommittedtoourroleasanobjectivethirdpartyandwemustenabletrustintherelationshipsbetweenourcustomers.Therefore,whenwepresentrisktoourcustomers,weprefertodoitinawaythatistangibleandrelevanttothecontextofthesituation.Usingtoolsthatquantifyriskisanimportantpartofthatservice,”saidHill.“Groupsthataretypicallyrunningprocessmodelsoreconomicprojectionsvaluethesensitivityanalysiscapabilityof@RISK.” ForDNV,@RISKassistedtheorganizationtorecognizevariablesthatimpacttheoutcomeoftheenergysystemsidentifiedearlier.“Thishelpsusunderstandtheprocessbetter,anditalsohelpsuscommunicatewiththecustomerintelligently,”saidHill.“Withcontinualrefiningandimprovements,weidentifyimprovementareaswhilesimultaneouslyimprovingthequalityofourownwork.” Over200CustomerSuccessStoriesusingPalisadeSolutions Joindecision-makersaroundtheworldwho RELYONPALISADE. 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